From Hotspots to Systems: Integrating Spatial Screening, System Dynamics, and Policy Analysis for Lead Exposure Mitigation

Gift Fabolude is a Ph.D. candidate in Environmental Science and Management at Montclair State University, where his research explores how geography, environmental conditions, infrastructure, and social vulnerability combine to influence patterns of lead exposure. Drawing on geospatial science, remote sensing, spatial statistics, and system dynamics, his work seeks to move lead prevention beyond identifying cases after exposure toward anticipating where risks are concentrated and how they can be reduced. He earned his B.Sc. in Environmental Management and Toxicology from the University of Benin, Nigeria. His doctoral research is advised by Dr. Danlin Yu and funded by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, under the grant NJLTS-0027-22.  “A system dynamics simulative model to assess bioaccessibility of lead in the environment, Jersey City, New Jersey.” 

Abstract

Lead exposure remains a persistent, socially uneven environmental health problem, yet conventional prevention programs such as blood lead testing, case surveillance, and source-specific regulation are largely retrospective and fragmented. Gift’s study aims to explain why they persist and how environmental and social relationships fuel the continuous exposure happening across different urban contexts, while also investigating alternative policies. Building on his review of the system dynamics approach, his study develops an integrated framework combining these studies: 1. Spatial risk screening by developing Lead Exposure Index (LEI) studies for New Jersey municipalities and Nigerian states using source-based indicators weighted by principal component analysis and the analytic hierarchy process. 2. Conducting an audit of inspection method policy in NJ, showing significant misalignment with modeled risk across some municipalities. 3. Conducting a city-scale system dynamics model of Newark City, calibrated on 2010–2022 data and projected to 2032, which reproduces historical dynamics simulating the business-as-usual trend in children’s elevated blood lead levels and other environmental factors that influence the stagnant trend of exposure in the city. To this end, his study forms a decision-support pipeline, where risk concentrates, why it persists, which interventions matter most, and whether institutions respond appropriately. 

Committee

• Dr. Danlin Yu, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Montclair State University (Chair)
• Dr. Huan Feng, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Montclair State University
• Dr. Josh Galster, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Montclair State University
• Dr. Isoken Aighewi, Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, University of Benin